2019 OK, MUY CERCA DE LA CATASTROFE, CUANDO PODIA SER PREVISTA Detectado en una imagen obtenida desde el observatorio brasileño de Sonear, el 24 de julio de 2019 en las coordenadas: UT 2019 07 24.04935 A.R. 20 52 20.68 Dec.-20 33 17.4 con una magnitud de 14.7. 2019 OK es el mayor cuerpo observado que se haya aproximado a la Tierra a menos de 70.000 kilómetros de la superficie, concretamente en 2019 Jul 25.057279 a 71.400 Kms. del centro de la Tierra, a menos del doble de distancia de los satélites geoestacionarios De haber chocado con la Tierra hubiera producido daños catastróficos en un área superior a 50.000 kilómetros cuadrados. Se han encontrado imágenes de archivo anteriores al descubrimiento, lo que indica medios insuficientes de análisis o falta de dedicación para la previsión de impactos de cuerpos incluso próximos a 100 metros de diámetro, cuyos efectos devastadores son muy superiores a los producidos por el objeto de Tunguska en 1908. De hecho, como demostramos, de haber analizado las posiciones del primer día, el 28 de junio, ya se tendría una órbita de riesgo o significativa para que dejara de pasar tan desapercibido, ¿incluso en el análisis de la misma área el 7 de julio…? Es evidente, que se requieren sistemas más informatizados para que no vuelva a suceder algo semejante, cuando el objeto en cuestión ocasione algo mas que un susto...
"Pseudo-MPEC" for 2019 OK
Created 2019 Jul 25 10:21:09 UT using Find_Orb
Click here for an explanation of pseudo-MPECs
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Astrometry:
K19O00K C2019 06 28.48696320 39 38.147-19 56 30.33 22.9 GV.rwo F51
K19O00K C2019 06 28.49473420 39 38.257-19 56 29.69 22.7 GV.rwo F51
K19O00K C2019 06 28.49666720 39 38.312-19 56 29.55 22.7 GV.rwo F51
K19O00K C2019 06 28.50443620 39 38.462-19 56 29.22 22.2 GV.rwo F51
K19O00K C2019 06 28.50637220 39 38.464-19 56 29.05 22.9 GV.rwo F51
K19O00K C2019 06 28.51608020 39 38.628-19 56 28.52 22.6 GV.rwo F51
K19O00K C2019 07 07.46783920 42 50.466-19 49 13.96 21.2 GV.rwo F51
K19O00K C2019 07 07.48023920 42 50.498-19 49 13.85 21.2 GV.rwo F51
K19O00K C2019 07 07.49263920 42 50.520-19 49 13.54 21.2 GV.rwo F51
K19O00K C2019 07 07.50505120 42 50.547-19 49 13.23 21.3 GV.rwo F51
K19O00K C2019 07 21.57190620 46 26.26 -19 58 27.2 17.01oV.rwo T05
K19O00K C2019 07 21.57515320 46 26.18 -19 58 27.4 17.34oV.rwo T05
K19O00K C2019 07 21.57936020 46 26.09 -19 58 28.0 17.03oV.rwo T05
K19O00K C2019 07 21.58027820 46 26.06 -19 58 27.8 17.33oV.rwo T05
K19O00K C2019 07 21.58260920 46 26.03 -19 58 28.4 17.27oV.rwo T05
K19O00K C2019 07 21.58692320 46 25.96 -19 58 28.2 17.29oV.rwo T05
K19O00K C2019 07 21.59058920 46 25.88 -19 58 28.1 17.20oV.rwo T05
K19O00K C2019 07 21.59619620 46 25.80 -19 58 28.7 17.21oV.rwo T05
K19O00K C2019 07 24.04935 20 52 20.68 -20 33 17.4 !14.7 Rq.rwo Y00
K19O00K C2019 07 24.05031 20 52 20.94 -20 33 21.1 !14.7 Rq.rwo Y00
K19O00K C2019 07 24.05128 20 52 21.21 -20 33 25.1 !14.7 Rq.rwo Y00
K19O00K C2019 07 24.42498 20 55 45.07 -21 16 47.6 14.2 gg.rwo 711
K19O00K C2019 07 24.42620 20 55 46.09 -21 16 59.8 !14.2 gg.rwo 711
K19O00K C2019 07 24.42742 20 55 47.19 -21 17 09.0 !14.2 gg.rwo 711
K19O00K C2019 07 24.43590 20 56 47.81 -21 17 21.3 14.1 gg.rwo F65
K19O00K C2019 07 24.43717 20 56 48.71 -21 17 36.7 14.1 gg.rwo F65
K19O00K C2019 07 24.43843 20 56 49.87 -21 17 51.2 !14.1 gg.rwo F65
K19O00K KC2019 07 24.86482121 26 16.767-24 43 53.23 11.4 GV.rwo L28
K19O00K KC2019 07 24.86495921 26 18.502-24 44 05.38 11.5 GV.rwo L28
K19O00K KC2019 07 24.86509821 26 20.254-24 44 18.30 11.5 GV.rwo L28
K19O00K KC2019 07 24.86523721 26 22.025-24 44 31.48 11.5 GV.rwo L28
Station data:
(711) McDonald Observatory, Fort Davis (N30.671481 W104.021500) US/Texas.
0.76-m f/3.0 reflector.
(F51) Pan-STARRS 1, Haleakala (N20.707235 W156.255910) US/Hawaii.
Observers N. Primak, A. Schultz, S. Watters, J. Thiel, T. Goggia. Measurer
PS1 Science Consortium. 1.8-m Ritchey-Chrétien + CCD.
(F65) Haleakala-Faulkes Telescope North (N20.707009 W156.257496) US/Hawaii. 2.0-m
Faulkes Telescope North.
(L28) ISON-Castelgrande Observatory (N40.817569 E15.463390) Italy.
(T05) ATLAS-HKO, Haleakala (N20.707582 W156.257008) US/Hawaii. Observers
L. Denneau, A. Heinze, H. Weiland, J. Tonry, H. Flewelling, A.
Fitzsimmons, D. Young, B. Stalder. Measurers L. Denneau, A. Heinze, J.
Tonry. 0.5-m f/2.0 Schmidt + CCD.
(Y00) SONEAR Observatory, Oliveira (S20.715082 W44.784960) Brazil.
Observers C. Jacques, E. Pimentel, J. Barros. Measurer C. Jacques. 0.28-m
f/2.2 astrograph + CCD.
Orbital elements: 2019 OK
Perigee 2019 Jul 25.057279 +/- 1.31e-5 TT = 1:22:28 (JD 2458689.557279)
Epoch 2019 Jul 25.0 TT = JDT 2458689.5 Find_Orb
q 71407.8585 +/- 12 (J2000 equator)
H 23.2 G 0.15 Peri. 308.58554 +/- 0.00025
Node 97.89347 +/- 0.000051
e 106.8714508 +/- 0.0467 Incl. 33.12897 +/- 0.0006
25 of 31 observations 2019 June 28-July 24; mean residual 0".51
Residuals in arcseconds:
190628 F51 .07+ .14- 190721 T05 .50- .59+ 190724 711( 2.3+ 3.2-)
190628 F51 .26- .05+ 190721 T05 .51- .26+ 190724 711( 4.4+ 2.8-)
190628 F51 .05+ .08+ 190721 T05 .67- .51+ 190724 F65 .06+ 1.4+
190628 F51 .30+ .06- 190721 T05 .44- .05+ 190724 F65 1.3- 1.9-
190628 F51 .13- .01- 190721 T05 .28- .47+ 190724 F65( 1.0+ 4.2-)
190628 F51 .13- .10- 190721 T05 .49- .74+ 190724 L28 .12- .04-
190707 F51 .08+ .03+ 190721 T05 .34- .35+ 190724 L28 .18- .44+
190707 F51 .10+ .04- 190724 Y00( 2.6- 1.4+) 190724 L28 .21- .25+
190707 F51 .01+ .02+ 190724 Y00( 2.6- 1.5+) 190724 L28 .02- .18-
190707 F51 .02+ .02+ 190724 Y00( 2.4- 1.2+)
190721 T05 .38- .56+ 190724 711 1.2+ .46-
Ephemerides for Geocentric:
Date (UTC).dd RA Dec delta r elong mag " sig PA
---- -- ----- ------------- ----------- ------ ------ ----- --- ---- ---
2019 07 24.43 20 56 27.072 -21 05 31.96 .00882 1.0246 169.7 13.7 .137 177
2019 07 24.44 20 56 38.770 -21 06 52.26 .00868 1.0244 169.7 13.6 .139 176
2019 07 24.45 20 56 50.857 -21 08 15.16 .00854 1.0243 169.6 13.6 .141 175
2019 07 24.46 20 57 03.351 -21 09 40.77 .00840 1.0241 169.6 13.6 .143 175
2019 07 24.47 20 57 16.272 -21 11 09.22 .00826 1.0240 169.6 13.5 .145 174
2019 07 24.48 20 57 29.644 -21 12 40.67 .00812 1.0239 169.5 13.5 .148 173
2019 07 24.49 20 57 43.491 -21 14 15.26 .00798 1.0237 169.5 13.5 .150 172
2019 07 24.50 20 57 57.837 -21 15 53.16 .00784 1.0236 169.4 13.4 .152 172
2019 07 24.51 20 58 12.712 -21 17 34.55 .00770 1.0235 169.4 13.4 .155 171
2019 07 24.52 20 58 28.143 -21 19 19.61 .00756 1.0233 169.3 13.3 .157 170
2019 07 24.53 20 58 44.164 -21 21 08.55 .00742 1.0232 169.3 13.3 .160 169
2019 07 24.54 20 59 00.809 -21 23 01.59 .00728 1.0230 169.2 13.3 .163 169
2019 07 24.55 20 59 18.114 -21 24 58.97 .00714 1.0229 169.1 13.2 .166 168
2019 07 24.56 20 59 36.121 -21 27 00.92 .00700 1.0228 169.1 13.2 .169 167
2019 07 24.57 20 59 54.872 -21 29 07.74 .00686 1.0226 169.0 13.1 .172 166
2019 07 24.58 21 00 14.414 -21 31 19.70 .00672 1.0225 168.9 13.1 .176 166
2019 07 24.59 21 00 34.799 -21 33 37.14 984050 1.0223 168.9 13.1 .179 165
2019 07 24.60 21 00 56.083 -21 36 00.40 963087 1.0222 168.8 13.0 .183 164
2019 07 24.61 21 01 18.325 -21 38 29.86 942127 1.0221 168.7 13.0 .187 163
2019 07 24.62 21 01 41.593 -21 41 05.91 921169 1.0219 168.6 12.9 .191 163
2019 07 24.63 21 02 05.958 -21 43 49.02 900213 1.0218 168.5 12.9 .195 162
2019 07 24.64 21 02 31.501 -21 46 39.66 879261 1.0216 168.4 12.8 .200 161
2019 07 24.65 21 02 58.308 -21 49 38.37 858311 1.0215 168.3 12.8 .205 161
2019 07 24.66 21 03 26.476 -21 52 45.73 837364 1.0213 168.2 12.7 .210 160
2019 07 24.67 21 03 56.111 -21 56 02.38 816422 1.0212 168.1 12.7 .215 159
2019 07 24.68 21 04 27.330 -21 59 29.03 795482 1.0211 168.0 12.6 .220 158
2019 07 24.69 21 05 00.264 -22 03 06.45 774547 1.0209 167.9 12.6 .226 158
2019 07 24.70 21 05 35.056 -22 06 55.50 753617 1.0208 167.7 12.5 .232 157
2019 07 24.71 21 06 11.870 -22 10 57.13 732691 1.0206 167.6 12.5 .238 156
2019 07 24.72 21 06 50.886 -22 15 12.41 711771 1.0205 167.4 12.4 .245 156
2019 07 24.73 21 07 32.308 -22 19 42.51 690856 1.0204 167.3 12.4 .252 155
2019 07 24.74 21 08 16.363 -22 24 28.75 669948 1.0202 167.1 12.3 .259 154
2019 07 24.75 21 09 03.310 -22 29 32.61 649047 1.0201 166.9 12.2 .267 154
2019 07 24.76 21 09 53.444 -22 34 55.76 628154 1.0199 166.7 12.2 .275 153
2019 07 24.77 21 10 47.098 -22 40 40.05 607269 1.0198 166.5 12.1 .283 153
2019 07 24.78 21 11 44.655 -22 46 47.63 586393 1.0197 166.3 12.0 .292 152
2019 07 24.79 21 12 46.556 -22 53 20.90 565528 1.0195 166.1 12.0 .302 152
2019 07 24.80 21 13 53.308 -23 00 22.61 544675 1.0194 165.8 11.9 .312 151
2019 07 24.81 21 15 05.503 -23 07 55.93 523835 1.0192 165.5 11.8 .323 150
2019 07 24.82 21 16 23.830 -23 16 04.47 503010 1.0191 165.2 11.7 .334 150
2019 07 24.83 21 17 49.099 -23 24 52.43 482202 1.0190 164.9 11.7 .345 149
2019 07 24.84 21 19 22.269 -23 34 24.70 461413 1.0188 164.5 11.6 .358 149
2019 07 24.85 21 21 04.484 -23 44 46.94 440646 1.0187 164.1 11.5 .371 149
2019 07 24.86 21 22 57.115 -23 56 05.84 419904 1.0185 163.6 11.4 .384 148
2019 07 24.87 21 25 01.822 -24 08 29.26 399192 1.0184 163.1 11.3 .398 148
2019 07 24.88 21 27 20.636 -24 22 06.54 378514 1.0183 162.6 11.2 .413 148
2019 07 24.89 21 29 56.062 -24 37 08.82 357876 1.0181 162.0 11.1 .427 148
2019 07 24.90 21 32 51.225 -24 53 49.46 337286 1.0180 161.3 11.0 .442 148
2019 07 24.91 21 36 10.074 -25 12 24.55 316754 1.0178 160.5 10.9 .457 148
2019 07 24.92 21 39 57.664 -25 33 13.60 296291 1.0177 159.6 10.8 .471 148
2019 07 24.93 21 44 20.559 -25 56 40.25 275913 1.0176 158.5 10.6 .484 149
2019 07 24.94 21 49 27.430 -26 23 13.22 255640 1.0174 157.3 10.5 .493 150
2019 07 24.95 21 55 29.931 -26 53 27.07 235502 1.0173 155.9 10.4 .499 152
2019 07 24.96 22 02 44.043 -27 28 02.77 215535 1.0171 154.2 10.2 .498 154
2019 07 24.97 22 11 32.153 -28 07 46.74 195792 1.0170 152.2 10.1 .488 160
2019 07 24.98 22 22 26.339 -28 53 26.36 176349 1.0169 149.7 9.9 .471 168
2019 07 24.99 22 36 13.595 -29 45 35.71 157320 1.0167 146.6 9.8 .462 5
2019 07 25.00 22 54 04.030 -30 43 57.06 138876 1.0166 142.7 9.6 .526 30
2019 07 25.01 23 17 42.753 -31 45 42.71 121284 1.0164 137.5 9.5 .791 55
2019 07 25.02 23 49 42.474 -32 41 39.29 104980 1.0163 130.7 9.3 1.39 69
2019 07 25.03 00 33 17.113 -33 07 55.11 90663 1.0162 121.6 9.3 2.47 73
2019 07 25.04 01 30 51.624 -32 15 05.39 79421 1.0160 109.5 9.4 4.13 71
2019 07 25.05 02 39 53.092 -28 56 43.55 72700 1.0159 94.3 9.7 6.16 65
2019 07 25.06 03 50 02.208 -22 55 27.61 71788 1.0157 77.5 10.4 7.73 59
2019 07 25.07 04 50 03.374 -15 37 52.84 76891 1.0156 61.6 11.5 8.13 55
2019 07 25.08 05 36 02.070 -08 54 17.76 86952 1.0154 48.6 12?? 7.60 53
2019 07 25.09 06 09 52.509 -03 32 04.99 100490 1.0153 38.7 14?? 6.74 52
2019 07 25.10 06 34 49.993 +00 31 38.91 116293 1.0152 31.3 15?? 5.92 52
2019 07 25.11 06 53 35.843 +03 34 43.50 133556 1.0150 25.7 17?? 5.24 53
2019 07 25.12 07 08 02.644 +05 53 59.75 151779 1.0149 21.5 18?? 4.70 53
2019 07 25.13 07 19 25.686 +07 41 59.93 170654 1.0147 18.2 20?? 4.28 54
2019 07 25.14 07 28 35.359 +09 07 27.74 189985 1.0146 15.6 21?? 3.95 55
.............…
Diferentes elementos orbitales que se obtienen a partir de las observaciones de días anteriores. Como se ve, ya el día 28 de junio se obtiene una órbita de riesgo o, por lo menos, significativa de aproximación.
(null) 2019 OK
Perigee 2019 Jul 24.607582 TT = 14:34:55 (JD 2458689.107582)
Epoch 2019 Jul 25.0 TT = JDT 2458689.5 Find_Orb
q 82314.9205km (J2000 equatorial)
H 23.0 G 0.15 Peri. 316.02191
Node 89.13138
e 125.1236568 Incl. 28.15918
From 6 observations 2019 June 28 (41.9 min); mean residual 0".14